The Illusion of Certainty: Risk, Probability, and Chance

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The Illusion of Certainty: Risk, Probability, and Chance

Full Program: 2011 World Science Festival | 01:28:02

Original Program Date: Thursday, June 2, 2011

Featuring Mathematician, Science Writer Amir Aczel, Psychologist, Author Gerd Gigerenzer, Physicist, Author Leonard Mlodinow, and Cognitive Scientist Josh Tenenbaum with Mathematician Marcus du Sautoy Moderating

Full 90 Minute Program: Stuff happens. The weather forecast says it’s sunny, but you just got drenched. You got a flu shot—but you’re sick in bed with the flu. Your best friend from Boston met your other best friend from San Francisco. Coincidentally. What are the odds? Risk, probability, chance, coincidence—they play a significant role in the way we make decisions about health, education, relationships, and money. But where does this data come from and what does it really mean? How does the brain find patterns and where can these patterns take us? When should we ditch the data and go with our gut? Join us in a captivating discussion that will demystify the chancy side of life. More from this series: The Illusion of Certainty Read the transcript of the live chat from the interactive broadcast of this program on June 22, 2011, featuring Amir Aczel and Maggie Koerth-Baker This program is part of the Big Ideas series.



Marcus du Sautoy

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Amir Aczel

Mathematician, Science Writer
Full Bio >


Gerd Gigerenzer

Psychologist, Author
Full Bio >


Leonard Mlodinow

Physicist, Author
Full Bio >


Josh Tenenbaum

Cognitive Scientist
Full Bio >

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